Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 36.287773 41.075432 46.732032 54.046680 63.475090 75.559771 92.851721
2025-05-04 30.093001 35.991638 43.689351 54.951744 71.996784 98.958209 151.055566
2025-05-11 25.907071 32.195919 41.014649 55.229731 79.980101 128.435377 266.580585
2025-05-18 22.657628 28.910850 38.137795 54.137269 85.405265 160.410426 515.542922
2025-05-25 20.524601 26.784441 36.440008 54.340188 93.569292 212.530423 1708.828706
2025-06-01 18.752389 24.889855 34.684662 53.842858 100.194815 278.611264 NaN
2025-06-08 17.263377 23.213082 32.963222 52.875292 105.320105 362.461374 NaN
2025-06-15 16.069192 21.848858 31.540262 52.109024 110.804775 489.209513 NaN
2025-06-22 15.104621 20.743663 30.398612 51.639429 117.238969 708.048408 NaN
2025-06-29 14.142287 19.546162 28.923362 50.045299 118.921100 945.107842 NaN
2025-07-06 13.847827 19.429407 29.430356 53.302188 143.122959 3967.022759 NaN
2025-07-13 13.179133 18.609603 28.474501 52.632865 149.938613 20885.845375 NaN
2025-07-20 12.678226 18.047909 27.975453 53.114795 164.367095 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.244329 17.568628 27.584264 53.817520 182.336753 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.807381 17.049910 27.051375 53.991595 198.439317 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.312390 16.392676 26.160588 52.890543 204.092693 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.954645 15.961840 25.708168 53.059723 222.321794 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.580062 15.476301 25.090467 52.567942 234.719894 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.204968 14.968563 24.380172 51.630761 241.759602 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.870763 14.519275 23.762291 50.890334 250.951970 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.578706 14.133723 23.255186 50.436815 264.322615 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.239323 13.643321 22.477627 48.902155 260.269823 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.198324 13.713535 22.971638 52.033578 344.905759 NaN NaN